Wah ini dia internet marketing indonesia

SEO atau Search Engine Optimization apa itu katakunci dalam seo? adalah alat teknis pemasaran web yang bertujuan untuk memberikan peringkat yang lebih tinggi ke halaman web melalui berbagai teknik dan metode jasa seo untuk toko online. Hal ini juga membantu untuk meningkatkan faktor visibilitas halaman web dan berusaha untuk memasukkannya ke dalam peringkat yang lebihcara menghitung roi seo  tinggi dalam hal hasil pencarian alami. Para ahli yang bertanggung apakah traffic sama dengan penjualan? jawab untuk mengoptimalkan situs web disebut pengoptimalan Search Engine. Pengoptimalan Search Engine dapat bekerja untuk perusahaan sendiri dan berusaha untuk meningkatkan peringkat dari semua halaman web di-rumah. Bahkan, ada perusahaan khusus yang menawarkan jasa SEO potensi pasar pengguna smartphone di indonesia untuk berbagai klien.

Layanan SEO mencakup teknik tertentu seperti On-page optimasi, optimasi off-page, evaluasi desain, penilaian situs dan banyak lagi. Saat ini, ada sejumlah perusahaan yang menawarkan jasa SEO co untuk rumah bisnis kecil dan menengah. tarif mereka cara membuat website bisnis yang baik bervariasi dari jenis proyek mereka ditugaskan dengan. Namun, ada faktor-faktor tertentu yang perlu Anda ingat sebelum endowing tanggung jawab untuk satu. Tapi tugas ini dapat menjadi
• Biaya Factor - Banyak perusahaan jasa SEO id mengisi jumlah besar. Itu selalu tidak benar, untuk mematuhi biaya langkah-langkah efektif. Perusahaan SEO besar tepat mengimbangi jumlah berat yang mereka tetapkan dengan layanan

Baik Perusahaan Jasa SEO top bertujuan untuk menawarkan keadaan seni layanan kepada klien. Mereka menerapkan teknik yang unik untuk menjamin visibilitas yang lebih baik untuk halaman web klien. Beberapa layanan yang mereka tawarkan meliputi Link Building, Analisis Link dan Pemasaran Sosial. Mereka membuat menggunakan alat khusus seperti Alat Google Keyword saran, Wordtracker, harga jasa seo Keyword Daftar Optimizer Tool, Link Building Suggestion Tool, Keyword Kesulitan Periksa Alat, Keyword Spy, Keyword Density Checker dan sejenisnya. Mereka juga bertujuan untuk mempromosikan bisnis klien mereka melalui Social Media Marketing yang lagi embeds strategi khusus tertentu. Ada banyak alat promosi di dunia dan Pasal ini Submission, Video Submission, membuat halaman bisnis di situs Jaringan Sosial, Social Bookmarking adalah untuk beberapa nama.

Bagaimana Anda menilai jasa Perusahaan SEO?

Setelah Anda menandatangani kontrak dengan perusahaan jasa SEO, Anda juga harus berusaha untuk mendapatkan umpan balik tepat waktu. Memang benar bahwa peringkat tidak dapat ditingkatkan dan situs tidak dapat dipromosikan share situs social bookmark high pr dalam jangka waktu kecil, tapi tinggal menyadari kampanye adalah hal terbaik untuk dilakukan. Sebuah perusahaan SEO yang baik akan membuat Anda diperbarui dengan belajar branded dan longtail keyword kemajuan dan akan memberikan Anda sebuah mingguan atau laporan bulanan hal diimplementasikan. Tergantung pada respon mereka, Anda akan dapat menilai upaya mereka menempatkan dalam.

Selalu mencoba untuk tetap berhubungan melalui chatting dan panggilan. Berdasarkan respon yang mereka berikan kepada pertanyaan Anda, Anda dapat mengevaluasi legitimasi perusahaan jasa SEO terbaik. Sebuah perusahaan SEO yang baik tidak membingungkan 4 tools seo gratis klien dengan berbelit-belit. Mereka cepat menjawab panggilan Anda dan membalas chatting Anda. Hal-hal sederhana dari sisi perusahaan SEO tepat mengungkapkan keseriusan tentang Anda.

Hak perusahaan paket jasa SEO dapat membuat perbedaan nyata untuk bisnis Anda. Melalui keahlian yang tepat dan alat-alat baik diteliti, tidak hanya konsultan SEO cara riset keyword dapat membuat halaman web Anda peringkat teratas dalam peringkat mesin pencari, tetapi juga akan berkontribusi dalam menggambar lalu lintas ke situs Anda. layanan SEO ini dia rahasia jasa seo dapat melakukan keajaiban untuk website Anda, tetapi Anda harus yakin bahwa halaman web Anda adalah di tangan yang tepat.

Cream pemutih wajah yang sudah terbukti dan aman

Dengan segudang katalog pemutih wajah krim wajah dan krim untuk lingkaran hitam, itu bisa sulit untuk menemukan satu yang akan memberikan nilai terbaik untuk uang Anda. Dengan semua klaim semalam cream pemutih wajah kecantikan instan, Anda perlu ingat bahwa tidak semua krim diciptakan sama. Beberapa memiliki bahan-bahan produk pemutih wajah terbaru berkualitas tinggi daripada yang lain dan beberapa mungkin mengklaim bahan tertentu dalam produk, tetapi dalam jumlah kecil seperti itu tidak membuat banyak perbedaan. Berikut langkah-langkah untuk memilih yang terbaik krim wajah dan krim cara pembelian cream pemutih wajah untuk lingkaran hitam: Langkah 1:Tentukan apa yang Anda mencoba untuk mencapai dengan krim ini. Sebagian besar dirancang untuk melembabkan kontak kami wajah Anda. Namun, jika Anda mencoba untuk menghilangkan lingkaran hitam, Anda ingin memastikan bahwa krim memiliki bahan-bahan yang dirancang untuk serum gold original mengurangi lingkaran hitam.Langkah 2:Cari tahu apa bahan utama adalah. krim wajah dapat mengklaim memiliki lidah dalam produk, tetapi jika tidak salah satu bahan utama, tidak akan banyak gunanya bagimu. Jika Aloe terdaftar pertama, Anda dapat merasa yakin serum vampire pemutih tubuh bahwa ini adalah bahan utama. bahan-bahan berkualitas dalam krim wajah adalah kunci untuk keberhasilan suatu produk frutablend original Langkah 3:Baca ulasan produk. perempuan lain yang telah menggunakan krim khusus cream pemutih wajah temulawak untuk wajah dan memiliki hasil yang positif lebih dari senang untuk menyebarkan berita. Sebaliknya, jika mereka merasa mereka mengambil cream magic glossy day night keuntungan dari, mereka akan berbagi itu juga. konsumen lainnya sering merupakan cara terbaik untuk mengetahui seberapa efektif krim ini ketika merawat lingkaran hitam atau hanya melembabkan wajah Anda.Langkah 4:Melihat apakah ada jaminan. Sebuah perusahaan yang memiliki produk yang berkualitas bersedia untuk kembali serum vitamin c original ini dengan memberikan uang Anda kembali jika Anda tidak puas. Banyak krim wajah dan krim untuk mengobati lingkaran hitam bisa menjadi mahal. Mengetahui bahwa Anda bisa mendapatkan uang Anda kembali jika Anda tidak puas ditambahkan ketenangan pikiran.Tips glucogen original murah tambahanCarilah penjualan. Banyak produsen akan menawarkan spesial atau insentif seperti pengiriman gratis, atau beli satu dapat satu gratis. Untuk menambah kenyamanan, banyak perusahaan menawarkan program jual glucola original pengiriman otomatis di mana krim wajah lotion vampire original yang dikirimkan kepada Anda secara otomatis setiap bulan. Dengan cara ini Anda tidak perlu khawatir tentang kehabisan dan harus mengubah rejimen kecantikan Anda sampai Anda mendapatkan kiriman Anda cream sari pemutih wajah berikutnya

What Do Futures Markets Tell Us About Long-term Oil Prices?

• The tendency to believe that the prices of oil futures contracts are predicting the future price of oil is understandable but not supported by the track record of such bets.
• The prices of long-dated oil futures merely reflect where buyers and sellers are willing to strike a deal today, for their own, diverse reasons.

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal reminded me of numerous debates about the significance of energy futures prices, when I was a trader and later a trading manager for the former Texaco, Inc.  Do changes in futures contract prices actually predict future oil prices as the Journal's reporter suggests? If so, then it might be reasonable to conclude that today's low oil prices could persist for years. However, from my perspective that over-interprets the market data and ignores some important oil fundamentals.

As tempting as it might be to think so, the futures market for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil isn't a crystal ball, and neither is the market for UK Brent crude. A futures price is simply the price someone is willing to pay or receive now for oil to be delivered (or settled without delivery) later. It is typically based on business needs, rather than deep analysis.  A concrete example might be helpful.

The parties who on August 11th bought or sold oil for $56 or $57 in December 2017 likely did so, not because they were certain what the price would be then, but because they couldn't be sure and either needed to hedge another transaction or activity, or thought it constituted a reasonable bet. Aggregating a modest number of such transactions--long-dated futures trade much less frequently than those for the near months--doesn't improve the accuracy of these bets on an inherently unpredictable commodity over long intervals. Anyone who thinks it does should examine the track record of oil futures as predictions; it is a sobering exercise, especially for those who have traded this market.

Consider that while the September 2015 WTI contract closed at a little over $43 per barrel that afternoon, traders were buying and selling the same contract for more than twice as much during long stretches of 2012--about as far removed from us as the late-2017 contract prices cited in the Journal article as evidence of a persistent oil-price slump. Prices for the September 2015 contract were even higher in the middle of last year, when traders knew nearly as much about the growth of US tight oil production and its rising productivity as we do today, but crucially didn't know that OPEC would choose not to cut output to alleviate an over-supplied market as they had done in the early 1980s and late 1990s. Similar examples abound.

So how else might one explain the fact that long-dated oil contracts are trading for less today than they were this spring, if not as a prediction of a longer period of low prices ahead? Behavior and learning play key roles. With the  first anniversary of this historic price collapse just a few months off, expectations of a quick rebound in prices have faded. The possibility that the US could produce as much tight oil, for now, with fewer than half as many drilling rigs in operation as a year ago has sunk in. So has the reality that as painful as $50 oil is for some of OPEC's members, cartel leaders like Saudi Arabia show little inclination to blink first.

However, others are blinking, and that's why I'm skeptical that oil prices can remain this low indefinitely. The cuts in staff and investment budgets by major oil companies and their national oil company peers have been breathtaking, totaling $180 billion this year according to one analysis. The cuts suggest that the projects in question require significantly higher oil prices to be profitable, even after recent cost reductions, or have become too risky at current prices.

Few of these companies are big players in shale. Their bread and butter is large, conventional onshore oil fields and enormously expensive deepwater oil projects, the collective output of which is inherently subject to annual declines in output. Decline is the "silent killer" of output, to the tune of 5% or so every year. The only way to offset this trend within the portfolios of these producers is to spend large sums every year on new wells and new projects--projects that according to Rystad Energy, as cited by Bloomberg, have been cut more than at any time since 1986.

We must also put the US shale revolution in its proper context. When added to a global market that was balanced between supply and demand at around $100 per barrel, it was a game-changer, not least because no other producer or group of producers was willing to reduce output enough to accommodate this new source. However, even at today's 5.4 million barrels per day US tight oil represents only about 6% of global supply. The combination of shale plus OPEC covers less than half the world's oil demand.

The remainder must come from onshore and offshore oil fields in non-OPEC countries like Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Norway, and Russia. This non-OPEC supply has grown thanks to  a wave of completions of  large projects begun 5-10 years ago, when prices were rising rapidly. However, reduced investment now surely means lower non-OPEC production within a year or two.

The key question for future oil prices is therefore when demand, which according to the International Energy Agency is growing rapidly under low prices, and supply, for which new investment has suddenly shifted from the accelerator to the brake pedal, will cross over, erasing today's glut. It's hard to infer the answer from the thinly traded market for long-dated oil futures contracts.

The Return of Iran's Oil

• If approved by all parties the negotiated nuclear agreement with Iraq could affect energy markets both directly and indirectly.
• By adding to the current global oil glut, it would make big oil projects elsewhere riskier, while undermining outdated restrictions on US oil exports.

The signing of a nuclear agreement between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany represents more than a geopolitical milestone. In the context of today's lower oil prices it puts additional pressure on near-term prices, but perhaps more importantly creates the potential for significant shifts within the oil industry. Iran's expanded exports--once the conditions of the deal are met--will arrive in a market quite different from the one that prevailed when they were restricted in early 2012.

These differences include an OPEC that is now engaged in a contest for global market share, rather than one focused on maintaining oil prices at around $100 per barrel. This is the cartel's response to the rapid growth of non-OPEC production, mainly from US shale, or "tight oil" formations. Based on data from the International Energy Agency, non-OPEC production has increased by 5 million barrels per day (bpd) since 2012, while global demand has grown by just 3 million bpd.  The return of anywhere from 600,000 to 1 million bpd of Iranian exports would expand a global oil surplus and intensify competition.

 Iran's oil traders may find that placing additional volumes with refiners will not be as easy as it would have been just a few years ago. As the Wall Street Journal noted, the likeliest home for most of this incremental supply is in Asia, where competition between Saudi, Iraqi and Russian barrels is already keen. China and India have been the largest purchasers of Iranian oil during the sanctions (see chart below) but Iran is not the only producer seeking to expand its output of similar crude oil.  

 

Oil prices have two main dimensions, only one of which is widely understood outside the industry. Media reports focus on the absolute price level, particularly for benchmark grades such as Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI). However, differentials--the gaps in price for oils of different quality, or of similar quality in different regions--are nearly as important for producers and often more so for refiners.

Iranian oil is mainly sour (high in sulfur) and so competes principally with other sour grades, including those from Saudi Arabia, which is already at record output, and Iraq, where production is approaching 4 million bpd, compared with just under 3 million in 2012. OPEC's other big producers seem no more inclined to cut output to make room for extra Iranian oil than they were to accommodate surging US tight oil. Meanwhile, refineries in Europe, where sanctions on Iranian oil had the largest impact, are also "spoiled for choice" with various crude streams displaced from US refineries by the shale revolution.

If Iran's restored exports keep oil prices lower for longer, they are also likely to widen the "sweet/sour spread", or premium for light sweet crudes like those produced in the Bakken and Eagle Ford shales, over sour crudes like Saudi medium or Iranian heavy. That would lend greater urgency to calls for an end to 1970s-vintage restrictions on exporting US crude oil, because it would expand the potential economic opportunity for US exports.

As a result of opening the taps in Iran, we could also see deeper shifts in the structure of the global oil industry. OPEC's current production policy may be targeted at US shale, but shale producers have proven themselves much more adaptable than expected to prices in the $50-60 range. The same cannot necessarily be said for new conventional oil projects with price tags in the hundreds of millions to billions of dollars. 

Barring another shift as dramatic as the one that rippled through oil markets last fall, we may have witnessed the end of an era in which low-cost producers in OPEC held back production to drive up prices and, in the process, made room for much higher-cost production elsewhere. Iran appears poised to go beyond its pre-sanctions exports by inviting international investment in new developments that would be profitable at current prices.  If Iran's terms are attractive, the losers won't be shale producers that operate at dramatically lower scales of investment and risk per well, but big projects in places like the North Sea, which has already seen a wave of project cancellations. The recent lackluster Mexican bid round might be another signpost.

Could we end up in a few years with a global oil industry in which prices would be determined mainly by a new balance between a resurgent OPEC and US shale producers? That would be a very different world than we have experienced recently, and probably one with more price volatility.

Of course before any of this could happen, the nuclear agreement with Iran would have to go into effect and be widely seen to be holding. For anyone who recalls the periodic inspection crises with Iraq in the late 1990s, that can't be a foregone conclusion, even if the agreement survives review by a US Congress that asserted its right to scrutinize the deal's provisions and includes some surprising skeptics.

 

A different version of this posting was previously published on the website of Pacific Energy Development Corporation

Energy Storage and the Cost of Going Off-Grid

• New energy storage offerings from Tesla and other manufacturers are widely expected to enhance the attractiveness of rooftop solar power and other renewables.
• However, recent analysis from the Brattle Group shows that even with rapid cost reductions, grid-independence will remain beyond the reach of most consumers.

Last month's Annual Energy Conference of the US Energy Information Administration included speakers and panels on topics such as crude-by-rail, potential US oil exports, and the role of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, all of which should be familiar to my readers here. However, the topic that really caught my interest this year was energy storage.

Storage has been in the news lately, particularly since the launch of Tesla's new home and commercial energy storage products. In fact, Tesla's Chief Technology Officer spoke on the first morning of the conference. Much of his talk (very large file) focused on Tesla's expectations for the cost of storage to decline sharply as electric vehicles (EVs) and non-vehicle battery applications grow. Whether battery costs can drop as quickly as those for solar photovoltaic (PV) cells or not, storage is likely to become a more important factor in energy markets in the years ahead.

One of the most interesting presentations I saw examined a provocative aspect of this question. Michael Kline of The Brattle Group, which consults extensively on electricity, took a detailed look at whether rooftop PV and home energy storage might become sufficiently attractive that a large number of consumers would employ the combination to enable them to disconnect from the power grid entirely.  That would be an extremely appealing idea for a lot of people. The author of a book I received from the publisher a few years ago referred to it as a movement.

Most people by now appear to understand that solar panels alone can't make a household independent of the grid. The daily and seasonal incidence of sunlight aligns imperfectly with the peaks and troughs of typical home electricity demand. This is why "net metering", under which PV owners sell excess power to their local utility--effectively using the grid as a free battery--has become contentious in some electricity markets.

In a true off-grid scenario, net metering would be unavailable. Onsite storage would thus be necessary to shift in time the kilowatt-hours of energy produced from a home PV array. However, a standalone PV + storage system must be sized to deliver enough instantaneous peak power to handle periodic high-load events like the startup of air conditioners and other devices. Another presenter on the same panel had a nifty chart demonstrating how wide those variations can be, with multiple spikes each day averaging above 12 kilowatts (kW)--several times the output of a typical rooftop PV array.

Brattle's off-grid model included PV and storage optimized to "meet load in every hour given a battery with 3 days of storage (at average load levels.)" Although that is still probably less than the peak load such a system would encounter, it is the equivalent of multiple Tesla "Powerwall" units and would only be practical with the kind of drastic cost reductions Mr. Kline assumed by 2025: PV at $1.50/W and storage at $100/kWh, installed. That equates to around a third of last year's average US residential PV installation and 1/7th the estimated installed cost of Tesla's offering on a retail basis.  

Mr. Kline framed this exercise as a "stress test", not just of the off-grid proposition but of the future of the electric power grid. If many millions of customers were to "cut the cord" for electricity as others have for wireline telephone service, even a "smart" power grid would become much less important and might shrink over time. That same logic should extend to the power generators supplying the grid. If most consumers went off-grid, the value of even the most flexible generation on the grid, which today is often provided by natural gas turbines, would fall, as would demand for the fuel on which they run.

In Brattle's assessment, despite the assumption of very cheap PV and storage, that prospect seems remote. For the three markets analyzed (California, Texas and Westchester County, NY) the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for the off-grid configuration modeled was significantly more expensive than the EIA's projected cost of electricity in those markets in 2025. In fact, for consumers in California and Texas, as well as in all cases of the parallel commercial customer analysis Brattle performed, PV + storage would  be expected to cost a multiple of retail electricity prices.

As Mr. Kline explained, under more realistic assumptions the comparison was likely to be even worse for off-grid options. However, his conclusion that , "going off-grid...is unlikely to be the least expensive option for most consumers" does not mean that some consumers would not choose to do so, anyway. To them, a premium of 10-20 cents per kWh might seem like a small price to pay for personal energy independence. Yet at that price, it is hard to envision it would become a mass-market choice. 

Mr. Kline made a point of reminding his audience that Brattle's analysis did not mean that distributed energy  would  not be competitive in the future, or that it could not provide valuable services to customers and to the grid. Importantly, the figures he presented underlined the continued value of the power grid to customers, even in a future in which large quantities of PV and storage are deployed.  As he put it, "Distributed energy is a complement to the grid, not a substitute for it."

By extension, flexible generating assets like fast-reacting gas turbines should also continue to provide significant value, especially during those seasons when daily solar input is low, and in locations where average sun exposure is generally much weaker than in the US Southwest and other prime solar resource regions.  As appealing as the idea might be to some, storage seems unlikely to make either the grid or any class of generating technologies obsolete for the foreseeable future. As Bill Gates recently observed, that has implications for the cost of a wholesale shift to current renewables and away from fossil fuels.

A different version of this posting was previously published on the website of Pacific Energy Development Corporation.

Rare Earths Not So Rare?

• The bankruptcy of the main US producer of "rare earth" materials signals the end of a multi-year crisis over their global supply and cost.

The announced Chapter 11 filing of US-based rare earths mining and refining company Molycorp effectively marks the end of a crisis that managed to escape the notice of most people. Rare earths are elements of low abundance, compared to the ores of metals like iron and copper. Despite their relative scarcity, they have proved extremely useful in industrial applications including renewable energy technologies. Five years ago it appeared that China had cornered the market on rare earths and was exercising its market power to, among other aims, lure businesses reliant on these minerals to shift their operations to China.

Molycorp's modernization of its rare earth mine in California and subsequent expansion into other aspects of the business were responses to a perceived global crisis. China's restrictions on rare earth exports threatened the economic competitiveness of hybrid and electric cars, wind turbines, non-silicon solar cells, compact fluorescent lighting (CFL), and other devices of interest to energy markets and policy makers.

The situation also raised concerns in the defense industry, due to the importance of rare earth metals and alloys in the manufacture of missile components, radar and sonar equipment, and other military hardware. Governments created or expanded strategic stockpiles for these materials, and took other steps to manage their reliance on supplies from China.

However, as reported by the Council on Foreign Relations last fall, the effectiveness of efforts by the Chinese government to leverage their control of rare earth supplies was short-lived. Its policies led to mostly market-based responses, involving both supply and demand, that undermined China's near-monopoly and ultimately contributed to Molycorp's present financial difficulties.

Molycorp wasn't the only company to bring new supplies into production, or the only one to struggle as the crisis unwound. New supplies were already in the pipeline at the time China restricted its exports, in reaction to price spikes that preceded the policy as global demand bumped up against the output of China's mines and processing facilities. Nor was government control of China's fragmented rare earth industry sufficient to prevent continued exports exploiting loopholes of the restrictions.

Finally, and probably most importantly for both China-based and non-China-based producers, innovators in the industries using these materials found ways to make do with lower proportions of rare earths in permanent magnet motors and generators, or to do without them altogether.

The upshot from an energy perspective is that if anything will slow the expansion of wind and solar power, hybrid cars and EVs, and other alternative energy and energy-saving technologies, it is unlikely to be a shortage of rare earths. They may be rare relative to other industrial commodities, but in the small proportions used it seems they are not rare enough to pose more than a temporary bottleneck.

Where Is the Stimulus from Cheap Oil?

• Those expecting a boost to the US economy from lower oil prices--the opposite effect of past oil price spikes--have been disappointed by the anemic response so far.
• In GDP terms cheaper net oil imports have been offset by cuts in oil & gas investment. However, consumers now have billions saved at the gas pump to spend elsewhere.

For the last couple of months media coverage has reflected skepticism about the benefits of lower oil prices, and especially cheaper gasoline, for the US economy. This is somewhat puzzling, since the US is still a net importer of crude oil, and as such has enjoyed significant savings on our collective oil import bill during this period. And while the fallout for US oil producers whose rising output helped to trigger last fall's oil price collapse might negate some of the upside of that decline for the nation as a whole, the benefits for consumers ought to be more obvious.  

 

Start with some basic figures. From January to September of last year, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the main benchmark for US petroleum, averaged $100 per barrel (bbl), in line with the average of the previous three years. From October through mid-May of this year, WTI has averaged just over $60/bbl, near where it trades today. The data for what US refineries paid to acquire imported oil through April reflect a similar drop, implying national savings of around $60 billion since the price of oil fell below the previous year's lows last October, on the basis of 7 million bbl/day of net crude oil imports. That equates to $94 billion on an annualized basis.

 

However, as I've noted before, the US has become a significant net exporter of refined petroleum products like gasoline and diesel fuel. If the revenue from those sales has fallen in parallel with oil prices, that would shrink the benefit for overall US petroleum trade by about a third.

 

At that level, the GDP gains from cheaper imported oil appear to be more than offset by cuts of over $90 billion in capital expenses as US oil producers seek to reduce their costs and manage their cash flow in a low-price environment.  Those cuts, along with reduced operating expenses, ripple through oil companies and their supply chains, resulting in job losses and suppliers that have less, in turn, to invest in new equipment.  

 

Of course the flip side of that is that with US net petroleum imports below 5 million bbl/day, out of total consumption of just over 19 million bbl/day, the country would suffer much less than previously from a sudden increase in oil prices due to some geopolitical event or a further change in OPEC's strategy.

 

Nor does this alter the fact that US consumers whose jobs are not tied to the oil industry have more left to spend or save every month, thanks to lower prices at the gas pump. Since the beginning of last October, US retail gasoline prices have averaged $0.84 per gallon less than at the same point a year earlier, peaking at a $1.25 year-on-year discount in mid-April. Current prices for all grades average $0.92/gal. less than in early June of 2014, following the Memorial Day weekend. As a result, consumers have gained around $90 billion in gasoline savings through May, equivalent to $137 billion per year.

 

If they're not yet spending the difference on other goods and services, they have reacted in other ways more directly related to cheaper gasoline: They appear to be driving more. The US Department of Transportation's gauge of vehicle miles traveled is up sharply, at or near a new high. API's oil statistics for the first quarter of 2015 show total US gasoline consumption ahead by 2.9%, compared to the first quarter of 2014. As cold and snowy as the past winter was, that's surprising.  If this trend persists, it could indicate a reversal of the generally downward trend in US gasoline demand since the financial crisis.

 

Consumers also appear to be purchasing larger, somewhat less fuel-efficient new cars. The Transportation Research Institute at the University of Michigan reported that average US new-car fuel economy of new cars sold in April was 0.6 mpg lower than at its peak last August, though still up by 5.1 mpg since October 2007.  Consistent with the figures on fuel economy, sales of hybrid cars fell by 16% in the first quarter, compared to last year, and now make up just over 2% of US new cars. Plug-in hybrids fell by nearly a third. Only battery-electric EVs bucked this trend, driven largely by Tesla's growth in sales.

 

Despite these shifts, I don't believe the return--for however long--of fuel prices that start with a "2" instead of a "3" or "4" will turn the US back into a nation of gas guzzlers. Consumers are only spending a fraction of their savings at the pump buying more fuel, and the preference of many for cars larger than those they were buying when gas prices reached $4 per gallon seasonally in much of the country doesn't alter the fact that even light trucks are becoming steadily more efficient.

 

Wherever the rest of that $100-plus billion a year from cheaper gasoline is going today, Americans would be wise not to assume it will carry into the future indefinitely. Oil prices remain volatile and uncertain. Although OPEC might be correct in projecting that we will not see $100 per barrel again soon, current prices may not prove sustainable, either. 

A different version of this posting was previously published on the website of Pacific Energy Development Corporation.